Burberry Group Plc is on the verge of exiting the FTSE 100 Index, ending the luxury-goods maker’s 15-year stay in the UK blue-chip gauge.

Hampered by an industry-wide slowdown in demand and a faltering brand revamp, the firm’s shares have slumped by a third over the past three months, sending Burberry tumbling down the market-value rankings that index compiler FTSE Russell uses to determine changes to the benchmark.

Ahead of Tuesday’s quarterly announcement of provisional changes to the index, Burberry’s market capitalisation of £2.5 billion ($3.3 billion) puts it 140th in the FTSE 350 Index of the UK’s large and mid-cap stocks. That’s far below where it needs to be to retain its place in the FTSE 100, which it has been a constituent of since September 2009.

Burberry “looks a shoe-in for relegation from the FTSE 100,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Burberry has been hit particularly hard by the demand slowdown gripping the luxury industry, especially in the all-important Chinese market. That resulted in a recent profit warning from the British firm, which didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

However, its woes have been a long time in the making.

Known for its trench coats with their distinctive checked lining, Burberry’s efforts to make the brand more upmarket to compete with the likes of French high-fashion houses like Louis Vuitton and Hermes have fallen flat with consumers. Frequent leadership changes also haven’t helped, with the company replacing its latest chief executive just last month.

The brand’s struggles to resonate with shoppers, especially in the inflation-squeezed aspirational segment, have been accompanied by plunging sales. Its shares have been notable under-performers, faring worse than fellow makers of high-end goods that are also trying to revamp their brands. Gucci owner Kering SA and Germany’s Hugo Boss AG have dropped 35 percent and 42 percent, respectively, this year.

“Burberry’s investment case remains under pressure with the brand now heading into unchartered territory of navigating a restructuring while still not giving up on its efforts to position itself as a ‘true luxury’ brand,” UBS Group AG analyst Zuzanna Pusz wrote in a note last month following the company’s profit warning and dividend suspension.

According to FTSE Russell guidelines, a stock will be removed from the FTSE 100 if its market capitalisation ranks 111 or below among eligible shares at the time of the re-balancing, while any that rise to 90th position or above join the index.

A strong contender to replace Burberry is insurance firm Hiscox Ltd., said Hargreaves Lansdown’s Streeter. Hiscox is among the highest-ranked stocks that aren’t already members of the index, Bloomberg data shows.

Final changes to the index will be announced on Sept. 4 after European markets close.

By Kit Rees and Joe Easton

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