Investors are not the best at predicting fashion trends. Birkenstock’s initial public offering was panned, with the sandal maker’s preferred pricing of $46 a share viewed as “reckless” given that consumers might get tired of strappy footwear at any time; since then the stock has risen 45 percent as sales rose 20 percent last year. Meanwhile, Dr Martens shares soared in 2021 on their debut, with the brand valued at roughly $5 billion; today its market capitalisation is one-fifth that.

Golden Goose, which is expected to start trading on the Milan bourse on Friday, has the benefit of learning from its predecessors’ mistakes. Demand was strong for the company’s shares last week, but only after it priced them at €9.50 to €10.50 apiece, implying a roughly $2 billion valuation. Earlier this year, top shareholder Permira had reportedly been angling for north of $3 billion.

More importantly, the brand is setting itself up to be more than a one-hit wonder – or, as brands from Levi’s to Moncler have done, keep customers hooked by endlessly iterating on the hero product. Luxury sneakers are a crowded category, and demand is uncertain amid a broader downturn in high-end fashion. But expensive sneakers mostly exist as extensions of luxury brands; they might occupy a few tables in a Gucci store, or share a wall with the rest of the footwear range at Louis Vuitton. At Golden Goose’s 200 locations, they’re the main attraction. Golden Goose is leveraging this advantage with in-store customisations such as graffiti or hand distressing, the sort of flourishes that encourage repeat visits and can’t easily be duped.

Golden Goose is also ramping up its marketing efforts – pitching itself as a “cultural brand” like Louis Vuitton or Moncler. Collaborations and performances with Native American activist Quannah Chasinghorse, architect Fabio Novembre and K-pop musician Sunmi could help forge connections with niche communities and tell stories about something other than shoes. That will also reduce the brand’s reliance on mainstream stars like Taylor Swift choosing to lace up a pair of distressed sneakers to drive hype.

So far Golden Goose’s strategy has propelled a brand many dismissed as a flash in the pan to a €500 million a year business. The question now is whether customers will come back for a second pair. The brand says it has a healthy number of repeat purchases, but the key to long-term success is whether this formula will work in new markets, and new products, such as handbags.

Elsewhere This Week

Men’s shows continue in Milan, with Gucci on Monday having another chance to win over sceptics of the brand’s direction under Sabato De Sarno. On Tuesday, Louis Vuitton will top off the first day of Paris Men’s week, where attendees will need to add navigating their way through preparations for next month’s Olympics to the usual logistical challenges.

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